Portlandbet Elections - Election betting on 150 Seats

While there remain some seats in question in the House of Reps, and a while to go in Senate markets, along with a few special markets like total seats and two party preferred, we thought we might congratulate those who landed the biggest longshot bets in PortlandBet’s all-seat election markets.

So, congrats to those lucky (astute) few who, back in July and August, were able to get on, at $11, Labor’s James Bidgood to defeat De-Anne Kelly in Dawson!

These punters were matched only by the solitary punter who backed Labor’s Brett Raguse in Forde ($11) in July. Congrats to all those who backed the Labor candidate in this seat, as they also landed the biggest successful swing of the election.

Forde was held by the Liberal party with a 13% margin from 2004, and despite the retirement of sitting member Kay Elson, was not considered under much threat. Many punters disagreed, however, and Brett Raguse was backed in to as short as $2.50, although this was back out to $2.80 when markets closed.

Well the money has spoken, now it’s time for the Australian public.

PB punters favoured 22 seats to cross to Labor from Coalition hands in the election. The first betting agency ever to bet on all 150 seats of a Federal Election, PortlandBet is in a unique position to be able to give this market-driven seat count prediction. Labor are favourite in 82 electorates, the Coalition 66, with Tony Windsor and Bob Katter sure to return as Independent candidates.

It is interesting to compare this to the 84 and 85 seats - joint favourites from the Total Labor Seats market (assuming the odds-on Labor actually win).

Of course, even more interesting will be to compare it against the actual result from the official count.

Please check back later for National Tally Room news.

Thirteen seconds before markets closed came the last bet of the campaign - $50 @ $1.57 on John Howard to hold his seat of Bennelong.

With the opening of polls in the 2007 Federal Election comes the close of betting markets at PortlandBet, so let’s post some key final numbers…

Federal Head to Head - ALP $1.30 Coalition $3.55. There was a flood of money overnight for the Coalition which caused Labor to drift from $1.22 to their final price (Coalition in from $4.35 late yesterday afternoon).

Total Labor Seats - Both 84 and 85 ended as the favoured number of seats in this market (excluding 73 or less). 100+ was close behind!

Labor Two Party Preferred % - 54-54.99 favoured, closely followed by the 53% band, then 52, then 55+! No money whatsoever on selections under 50%, which is not a huge surprise.

We are now checking seat by seat to confirm the final prediction from the 150-seat markets.

The latest Newspoll has emboldened Coalition punters into a lash at the Coalition head to head price at odds, moving their price back below $4.

Important ’HOLD’ seats for the Coalition such as McEwen, Bowman, Sturt, North Sydney, Hinkler and Leichhardt have also received very serious support. Betting is hectic here as punters unleash wave after wave of cash across more than 100 markets - so we will hold off on any further posting until the markets have closed.

All PortlandBet markets will close as the first polling booths open on election day.

We will put up some final numbers from these markets ASAP after their closure, so you can see on the day what punters are predicting.

The last few days have seen a frenzy of betting across the range of markets and seats, and with PortlandBet being the first ever to offer such a range on Australian elections, including the first ever offering of betting on every seat of a Federal Election, election night should be a fascinating one for our bookmakers and punters alike!

So check out this blog on election day, and election night, where we will link to our live commentary from the National Tally Room.

Petrie has joined the exodus of Coalition-held seats crossing the line to Labor favouritism, making the ALP favourite in 82 seats. The Coalition remain favourite in 66 seats, with Bob Katter and Tony Windsor to return as Independents.

That makes 22 seats that have crossed the line to ALP favouritism (as shown on Simon Jackman’s excellent site).

UPDATE - 100+ seats in total Labor seat market backed into $8.50!!

Portland punters have swarmed over the total Labor seats and Two-party preferred % markets this week.

While the 53-53.99% Labor TPP band remains favourite, there has been considerable interest in 54-54.99% and 55+, seeing both of those selections shorten considerably.

In the Total Labor seats market, wildly diverging opinions have been displayed. Currently 84 and 85 seats are the favoured selections at $9, but 100+ has also been backed off the map! 100+ is joint second favourite at $10, and PortlandBet would not enjoy such a result.

NOTE - Standard ‘73 or less’ exclusion applies!! It is still the favoured selection, pricewise…

UPDATE - 100+ now joint favourite @$9 as PB punters just can’t get enough!!